Southampton's St. Mary's fortress meets Bolton's leaky travelling defence

Saturday’s meeting at St. Mary’s gives Southampton a chance to press higher in the Championship table, while Bolton arrive looking to turn their away scoring into points.

A top-half side against a team in the lower half

Southampton sit seventh of 24 with 16 points from 10 games and a goal difference of +11. Bolton are 14th on 13 points, with a goal difference of -3. The gap on the table is clear, but the match will turn on how each side gets its results.

St. Mary’s fortress and Bolton’s leaky travels

Southampton have been near-perfect at home, winning all five matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding only four. Their away record is far less convincing, with one win, two draws and two defeats from five trips.

Bolton’s pattern is the reverse in one sense. Their five away games have produced nine goals, an average of 1.8, which is their most productive return at any venue. The problem is what they give away on the road: 11 goals conceded in five games, an average of 2.2.

The contrast sharpens late in matches. Seven of Southampton’s goals have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, and Bolton have conceded six in that same window. Southampton have won four of their last five.

Bolton without Forino-Joseph

Bolton will be without C. Forino-Joseph, who is sidelined with a groin injury.

Our prediction

Southampton 2-1 Bolton. Saints’ home record and their habit of scoring late should be enough to see them through, as Bolton’s away goals will keep the match competitive. Bolton’s visitors have shown they can score, but their defence has been conceding too often on the road to keep Southampton out for ninety minutes.