Schalke's home drought meets Mainz's firepower in Gelsenkirchen

Two sides pulling in opposite directions

Schalke need points badly, and Mainz have a chance to push further up the table when the two sides meet on Saturday at the VELTINS-Arena. Schalke sit 13th of 18 with five points and a goal difference of minus two. Mainz are eighth with seven points and a positive goal difference of three.

The sharpest contrast is in attack. Mainz have scored 13 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.6 a game, while Schalke have managed only four in the same spell. The hosts are still searching for a goal at home this season.

Mainz’s road form versus Schalke’s late collapses

Mainz have been far more potent away from home. They have won both of their road games this season and scored nine goals in the process. Their home record is the reverse: three matches, no wins, and seven goals conceded.

Schalke’s problems are different. They have yet to concede at home, but they have shipped six goals on their travels, and four of their six goals conceded overall have arrived between the 76th and 90th minutes. Mainz, for their part, have conceded four of their ten goals in the opening quarter-hour, so both sides have defensive habits that could decide a tight game.

Head-to-head: Schalke’s edge

The recent history favours the hosts’ visitors’ opponents, in a sense: across the last five meetings, Schalke have won twice, drawn three times and Mainz have not won once. The most recent meeting came in May 2023, when Schalke won 3-2 at Mainz.

Team news

Schalke will be without M. Sylla, who is out with a leg injury, while D. Ljubicic is a doubt with a knee problem.

Mainz face the heavier list. D. Kohr (foot), O. Ruoppi (knee), Silas (broken shinbone) and R. Zentner (hand) are all sidelined, and P. Nebel (muscle) and S. Widmer (knee) are doubtful. For a side whose strength is going forward, the absences in midfield and attack could matter.

Our prediction

Schalke 1-2 Mainz

Schalke have been stubbornly unable to find the net at home, and that is hard to fix against a side as productive on the road as Mainz. The hosts are capable of making a contest of it, particularly if they stay compact and avoid the late lapses that have cost them before. Mainz’s attacking quality should be enough to edge a close game.